Research

The E-commerce Revolution: Unraveling the Impact of Taobao Villages on Migration in China 

E-commerce development has grown rapidly worldwide, particularly in contemporary China, driving significant macroeconomic transformation. However, limited evidence exists on how e-commerce affects individuals’ economic choices and migration decisions. This paper is among the first to examine the impact of e-commerce development on migration decisions in China, focusing on the emergence of Taobao Villages in rural China. Using nationally representative survey data on migrants and leveraging variations in e-commerce villages concentration at the city level, I find that higher e-commerce prevalence increases migrants’ willingness to return to their hometowns, while having negligible effects on reducing their willingness to transfer their Hukou to cities. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects are more pronounced among ethnic minorities, unmarried migrants, and those with low educational attainment, with college-educated individuals exhibiting minimal response to e-commerce development back home. Additionally, cross-provincial migrants experience greater treatment effects compared to intra-provincial or intra-city migrants. The results remain robust when restricting the control group to cities that eventually adopted e-commerce villages. These findings provide novel evidence on the transformative role of e-commerce in reshaping migration decisions and highlight its nuanced impacts across different demographic and migration groups. 

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Center for Educational Data and Research